Thursday, January 8, 2009

Trevor Hoffman, and this year's Gabe Kapler

The Brewers signed Trevor Hoffman to a 1 year, $6 million deal, with incentives that could raise it to $7.5 million

Not a huge surprise, as the rumors have been picking up steam the past few days. I'm of two minds about this. On the one hand, it's picking up a solid relief pitcher for not too much money, so it's hard to get terribly upset about it, but on the other hand, the Crew needs another starting pitcher way more than a closer. The bullpen really wasn't a problem last year, and frankly I don't think it'd have been a problem this year, even before the signing of Hoffman. Doug Melvin has done an excellent job of picking up cheap pieces to pitch in, and last year showed us that the cheap pieces can be just as valuable. I mean, who would've thought Salomon Torres would be our closer? And yet, he performed brilliantly.

With that in mind, I'm more interested in guessing who'll be this year's Gabe Kapler signing for the Crew. In other words, who'll be the under the radar pick-up that's ignored at the time but ends up being an essential piece? I've got my money on R.J. Swindle. The Brewers picked him up back in November for the league minimum salary. He only has 4.2 major league innings to his credit, all for the Phillies, and was shellacked in them, but that's a small sample size, and his minor league numbers are quite honestly incredible. Against lefties in 51 Triple-A innings, he's got 1.41 BB/9 and 15.53 K/9, for a K:BB ratio of 11. (Yes. Eleven.) Furthermore, he's no slouch against righties, either, striking them out at a nearly 8 K/9 clip and walking them about as much as he walks lefties. All told, in 146 minor league innings he has an 8.19 K:BB ratio and has given up 0.03 HR/9. Clearly these numbers won't be as good in the majors, but they should still be stellar (the major league equivalency on minorleaguesplits.com suggests a 5.57 K:BB and 0.04 HR/9), so in other words he's fantastic at the three things that pitchers actually have control over (striking guys out, not walking them, and keeping the ball in the ballpark). If he gets opportunities to play and can keep up what he's been doing in the minors, he could be a breakout star.

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