Big Mac and the HoF

So, Mark McGwire got only 21.9% of the Hall of Fame vote this year, a decline from last year. He doesn't seem to be picking up support, and, frankly, I think that's a shame, for a few reasons:

1. We don't know for sure that he cheated. Granted, this is a fairly ridiculous point to make, because all the circumstantial evidence suggests that he did. However, I'm mentioning it anyway, because it informs my main and final point, which I'm getting to.

2. There are already plenty of cheaters in the Hall of Fame. This, I think, is a more germane point. The Hall of Fame is full of guys who cheated, and has been for a long time. Gaylord Perry is in the Hall even though he through spitballs. Whitey Ford is in the Hall even though he through scuffballs, and Yogi Berra is in the Hall even though he helped Whitey scuff the aforementioned balls. Furthermore, practically everyone who played in the 70s used Greenies (i.e., amphetamines) to keep themselves going. However, this isn't my main point, as you can argue that two wrongs don't make a right, or that steroid use is somehow a different form of cheating (although I think that's a hard point to argue WRT amphetamine use).

3. We don't know who did and didn't use steroids. This, really, is my key point. If the Mitchell Report has told us anything, it's that anyone who played baseball in the 90s could've been a steroid user. I mean, prior to the report coming out, no one thought Roger Clemens used PEDs, and now he's a symbol of the steroid era.

This, I think, is what really sells McGwire's candidacy for me. We keep him out of the Hall for using steroids. Well, Rickey Henderson got voted in today; what if he used steroids? It seems unlikely, and I have absolutely no evidence that he did, and don't even think he did, but it's possible. Or think about guys playing today who are considered locks for the hall, like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey, Jr., Mariano Rivera, et al. They all played during the height of the Steroid Era; do we really know for sure that none of them used? The notion of it may seem ridiculous, especially for some of them who are known for being "good guys", paragons of sportsmanship, but we don't actually know these people; we just know their images. The saga of Kirby Puckett should be instructive (see here). He was a revered figure, the ultimate good guy, and the next thing you know he's cheating on his mistress and pissing in parking lots.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that sometime in the next 10-20 years, the BBWAA will elect a steroid user to the Hall of Fame and have no idea that they did. It may have happened already. And when that happens, then it becomes apparent that Mark McGwire isn't being kept out because he used, but rather he's being kept out because he got caught. Furthermore, as I alluded to above, McGwire never actually got caught, per se; he's more being punished for a badly choreographed testimony before Congress. In other words, he's really being punished for having bad PR skills.

Furthermore, guys that no one suspects of having used steroids are really getting rewarded for good PR skills. Which would be more surprising, if we found out that Derek Jeter used steroids, or if we found out Alex Rodriguez did? Without a doubt, it would be more surprising to find out that Derek Jeter did, mainly because he's gotten revered by being so good at interacting with the press. Don't get me wrong, he's a great ballplayer, but not as great as the guy playing 40 feet to his right, who's hated, mainly because he comes off as a huge jerk. So we'd be more likely to believe A-Rod as a steroid user, because...he's not as nice as Jeter? That's the wrong way to make decisions, but I think that it ultimately comes down to that too often, and I think Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame candidacy has come down to that: he's not being punished for what he did, but for what he didn't do, and what he didn't do is handle the press effectively.